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MONDAY, JULY 13, 2026  ·  AFTERNOON REPORT  ·  YESTERDAY: July 12, 2026
Today's Outlook — MONDAY, JULY 13, 2026
PITCHER STRIKEOUT PROJECTIONS vs KALSHI
PITCHER K LINE MKT PROB
Kalshi yes price
 OUR PROB
P(K ≥ line)
 80% LINE
P ≥ 80%
 PARLAY
Best value
 PARLAY PROB
Our P(hit)
 Goose+3pK+PROJ KsF5 Ks
Taj Bradley vs LAA — — — — — — 105.4 105.1 7.9 7.3
Zack Wheeler @ DET — — — — — — 104.2 110.4 7.8 6.4
Tarik Skubal vs PHI — — — — — — 104.6 109.2 7.2 6.4
Paul Skenes vs MIL — — — — — — 104.8 106.9 6.8 6.4
Cade Cavalli vs NYY — — — — — — 103.0 103.9 6.7 6.7
Matthew Boyd @ CIN — — — — — — 101.4 103.5 6.7 6.7
Kevin Gausman @ SD — — — — — — 104.1 105.5 6.4 5.9
Robert Gasser @ PIT — — — — — — 100.6 100.1 6.0 6.0
Payton Tolle @ NYM — — — — — — 105.4 109.1 5.9 5.4
José Soriano @ MIN — — — — — — 105.4 109.8 5.8 5.3
J.T. Ginn @ CWS — — — — — — 106.0 108.2 5.8 5.3
Seth Lugo @ BAL — — — — — — 102.8 98.1 5.8 5.4
MacKenzie Gore vs HOU — — — — — — 105.5 103.6 5.7 5.5
Shane Baz vs KC — — — — — — 102.5 96.7 5.6 5.0
Ian Seymour vs SEA — — — — — — 103.6 104.2 5.5 5.5
Zach Thornton vs BOS — — — — — — 100.4 100.9 5.5* (4.6) 4.8
Trevor McDonald vs COL — — — — — — 104.9 100.2 5.1 5.0
Will Warren @ WSH — — — — — — 103.8 102.5 5.0 5.0
Andrew Abbott vs CHC — — — — — — 102.1 94.7 4.9 4.7
Danny Young @ STL — — — — — — 100.0 103.6 4.9* (5.3) 4.9
Emerson Hancock @ TB — — — — — — 104.6 102.9 4.9 4.5
JR Ritchie @ STL — — — — — — 101.9 98.7 4.8 4.5
Emmet Sheehan vs AZ — — — — — — 104.1 109.7 4.7 4.7
Noah Schultz vs ATH — — — — — — 102.2 99.1 4.7 4.7
Dustin May vs ATL — — — — — — 105.2 103.4 4.6 4.5
Tyler Phillips vs CLE — — — — — — 103.3 101.8 4.3* (4.8) 4.3
Joey Cantillo @ MIA — — — — — — 104.2 104.7 4.2 4.2
Michael Lorenzen @ SF — — — — — — 102.5 95.3 3.6 3.6
Germán Márquez vs TOR — — — — — — 100.1 93.9 3.5 3.5
Cristian Javier @ TEX — — — — — — 101.0 100.6 3.2* (2.6) 3.2
Mitch Bratt @ LAD — — — — — — 100.0 97.1 3.0 3.0
MKT PROB = Kalshi yes-ask price (implied probability) · OUR PROB = P(K ≥ line) via Poisson(λ = proj Ks/6 inn) · 80% LINE = highest available Kalshi K line where P(K ≥ line) ≥ 80% via Poisson · PROJ Ks = full outing projection · F5 Ks = first 5 innings only · * = updated since first projection · (x.x) = original pre-game locked value
HIGH TOTAL BASE PROJECTIONS
BATTER OPPONENT PROJ TBHR%J2+OPP pHR+EDGE
Sal Stewart vs Matthew Boyd 2.23 6.6% 113.6 94.8 BAT+19
Mitch Garver vs Ian Seymour 2.23 6.8% 84.2 107.4 PIT-23
Xander Bogaerts vs Kevin Gausman 2.21 5.4% 90.8 100.5 PIT-10
Kyle Schwarber vs Tarik Skubal 2.18 5.8% 132.8 98.7 BAT+34
Seiya Suzuki vs Andrew Abbott 2.08 5.6% 117.2 102.0 BAT+15
Esmerlyn Valdez vs Robert Gasser 2.08 5.0% 205.8 94.3 BAT+112
Romy Gonzalez vs Zach Thornton 2.07 6.2% None 106.5
Jo Adell vs Taj Bradley 2.06 5.6% 101.4 110.3 PIT-9
Kerry Carpenter vs Zack Wheeler 2.06 4.8% 112.2 105.5
Weston Wilson vs Ian Seymour 2.02 6.2% 92.4 107.4 PIT-15
Trea Turner vs Tarik Skubal 2.01 5.2% 97.0 98.7
Lars Nootbaar vs JR Ritchie 2.00 5.0% 110.6 106.5
GAME WIN PICKS
MATCHUP AWAY STARTER HOME STARTER PROJ TOTAL PICK
No game projections for today yet.
Game runs: starter proj_ops × 9.0 − 0.88 · Bullpen not modeled · Push = <0.1 run diff
KEY MATCHUP MISMATCHES
Esmerlyn Valdez vs Robert Gasser
BATTER EDGE J2+:205.8 / G3+:100.6 (gap: 105.2)
Justin Foscue vs Cristian Javier
BATTER EDGE J2+:155.9 / G3+:101.0 (gap: 54.9)
Randal Grichuk vs J.T. Ginn
BATTER EDGE J2+:155.1 / G3+:106.0 (gap: 49.1)
Yordan Alvarez vs MacKenzie Gore
BATTER EDGE J2+:151.0 / G3+:105.5 (gap: 45.5)
Ben Rice vs Cade Cavalli
BATTER EDGE J2+:146.8 / G3+:103.0 (gap: 43.8)
Dominic Canzone vs Ian Seymour
BATTER EDGE J2+:146.6 / G3+:103.6 (gap: 43.0)
Nelson Velázquez vs Danny Young
BATTER EDGE J2+:142.3 / G3+:100.0 (gap: 42.3)
Mickey Moniak vs Trevor McDonald
BATTER EDGE J2+:146.9 / G3+:104.9 (gap: 42.0)
Yesterday's Final Scores
NYY 5 @ WSH 3 F
HOU 5 @ TEX 6 F
SEA 8 @ TB 2 F
ATL 4 @ STL 3 F
COL 1 @ SF 3 F
TOR 4 @ SD 5 F
MIL 5 @ PIT 14 F
BOS 3 @ NYM 2 F
LAA 2 @ MIN 4 F
CLE 5 @ MIA 2 F
AZ 5 @ LAD 3 F
PHI 5 @ DET 0 F
CHC 8 @ CIN 4 F
ATH 1 @ CWS 9 F
KC 2 @ BAL 8 F
✓ MARKET EDGE — RIGHT CALLS
PITCHER LINEMKTPROJ KsACTEDGE
✓ Zach Thornton vs BOS 1.5 Ks 1.00 6.5 5 3.32
✓ Emerson Hancock @ TB 1.5 Ks 1.00 6.4 2 3.27
✓ J.T. Ginn @ CWS 1.5 Ks 1.00 6.1 7 3.08
✓ Will Warren @ WSH 1.5 Ks 1.00 6.1 2 3.04
✓ Noah Schultz vs ATH 1.5 Ks 1.00 6.0 4 3.01
✓ Trevor McDonald vs COL 1.5 Ks 1.00 6.0 4 3.00
✓ Cristian Javier @ TEX 1.5 Ks 1.00 5.6 4 2.73
✓ Andrew Abbott vs CHC 1.5 Ks 1.00 5.6 3 2.72
✗ MARKET EDGE — WRONG CALLS
PITCHER LINEMKTPROJ KsACTEDGE
✗ Tyler Phillips vs CLE 1.5 Ks 1.00 6.4 1 3.29
✗ Mitch Bratt @ LAD 1.5 Ks 1.00 6.4 0 3.27
✗ Michael Lorenzen @ SF 1.5 Ks 1.00 4.7 1 2.16
PROJECTION ACCURACY — JULY 12, 2026
PITCHER PROJ KsACTUALDIFFK LINE
Paul Skenes vs MIL 7.0 7 0.0 9.5
Seth Lugo @ BAL 5.7 6 +0.3 2.5
Germán Márquez vs TOR 3.6 4 +0.4 1.5
Zach Thornton vs BOS 4.6 5 +0.4 1.5
Noah Schultz vs ATH 4.7 4 -0.7 1.5
Dustin May vs ATL 4.7 4 -0.7 2.5
Trevor McDonald vs COL 5.0 4 -1.0 1.5
Payton Tolle @ NYM 5.8 7 +1.2 9.5
J.T. Ginn @ CWS 5.7 7 +1.3 1.5
Cristian Javier @ TEX 2.6 4 +1.4 1.5
Kevin Gausman @ SD 6.5 8 +1.5 2.5
MacKenzie Gore vs HOU 5.8 4 -1.8 2.5
Accuracy: green = within 1K · orange = off by 1–2K · red = off by 3+K · Edge calls: only shown when |edge| ≥ 0.15
BATTER TB PROJECTIONS vs ACTUALS — JULY 12, 2026
BATTER PROJ TBACT TBDIFFJ2+
Sal Stewart 2.23 2 -0.2 113.6
Mitch Garver 2.23 0 -2.2 84.2
Xander Bogaerts 2.21 1 -1.2 90.8
Kyle Schwarber 2.18 2 -0.2 132.8
Seiya Suzuki 2.08 1 -1.1 117.2
Esmerlyn Valdez 2.08 2 -0.1 205.8
Romy Gonzalez 2.07 0 -2.1 —
Jo Adell 2.06 0 -2.1 101.4
Kerry Carpenter 2.06 0 -2.1 112.2
Weston Wilson 2.02 4 +2.0 92.4
Trea Turner 2.01 1 -1.0 97.0
Nate Eaton 1.98 0 -2.0 —
Brandon Nimmo 1.96 5 +3.0 110.2
Michael Busch 1.96 4 +2.0 99.2
Carter Jensen 1.96 0 -2.0 109.3
HR PROJECTIONS (>5%) vs ACTUALS — JULY 12, 2026
BATTER PROJ HR%ACT HRJ2+
Mitch Garver 6.8% — 84.2
Sal Stewart 6.6% — 113.6
Weston Wilson 6.2% ✓ 1 HR 92.4
Romy Gonzalez 6.2% — —
Kyle Schwarber 5.8% — 132.8
Seiya Suzuki 5.6% — 117.2
Jo Adell 5.6% — 101.4
Jimmy Crooks 5.4% — 82.3
Royce Lewis 5.4% — 111.5
Xander Bogaerts 5.4% — 90.8
Trea Turner 5.2% — 97.0
Model Accuracy — July 12, 2026
PITCHERS (27 starters with projections)
METRIC MAEBIASWITHIN 1WITHIN 2 7-DAY MAESEASON MAE
K Count (proj @21 BF) 2.10 K over 0.62 25.9% 51.9% 1.97 K 2.05 K
K Rate 14.32% under 6.80 — — 10.73% 11.42%
ER (OPS proxy) 1.55 ER under 0.73 — — 1.69 ER 1.78 ER
IP (actuals only) — — — — avg 4.77 inn · σ 1.24
BATTERS (273 qualified)
METRIC MAEBIASWITHIN 1 7-DAY MAESEASON MAE
Total Bases 1.32 TB over 0.28 38.5% 1.45 TB 1.39 TB
K Rate 21.62% under 5.22 — 20.67% 20.73%
HR Rate (Brier) 0.10 proj 11.06% · act 0.11% — 0.12 0.11
GAMES (15 completed games)
METRIC MAE / ACCBIAS 7-DAYSEASON
Total Runs (both teams) 3.23 R over 1.82 3.95 R 3.95 R
Per-Team Runs 2.45 R over 0.91 2.87 R 2.70 R
Win Prediction 41.7% correct picks 45.6% 51.1%
K Count: proj = K% × 21 PA (6-inn baseline) · ER: OPS-against × 4.5 × IP/9 proxy · Game runs: proj_ops × 9.0 − 0.88 (starter OPS → runs, bullpen not modeled) · Bias +/− = over/under projection · Brier score: lower = better HR probability calibration
Focus Team Box Scores — July 12, 2026
SAN DIEGO PADRES — SD 5 - TOR 4
PITCHING
PITCHER IP H ER BB K P
Germán Márquez 4.0 6 3 2 4 85
Adrian Morejon 2.0 2 1 1 1 29
Kyle Hart 1.0 0 0 0 0 16
Ron Marinaccio 1.0 1 0 0 1 10
Mason Miller 0.1 0 0 0 0 5
PITCH MIX — GERMÁN MÁRQUEZ VIEW PROFILE →
TODAY vs (SEASON AVG)
TYPE N USE% VELO IVB HBRK WHIFF% STR BALL
FF 35 41% (38%) 95.8 (94.8) 9.0 (8.8) -8.4 (-7.6) 5.7% (13.9%) 19 13
KC 27 32% (38%) 86.3 (85.5) 0.9 (1.1) 0.5 (0.1) 18.5% (24.7%) 16 6
SI 13 15% (15%) 95.5 (94.0) 6.9 (7.3) -10.3 (-9.8) 7.7% (7.5%) 7 5
SL 10 12% (9%) 88.4 (87.8) 2.6 (3.6) -1.8 (-1.9) 30.0% (43.1%) 7 2
Color vs league avg (RHP) — green ≥10% above · red ≥10% below · season avg shown in (parens)
BATTING
BATTER AB H TB RBI NOTES
Manny Machado 4 3 3 1
Jake Cronenworth 4 2 2 1 2K
Xander Bogaerts 4 1 1 0 1K
Ty France 2 1 1 1 1BB
Gavin Sheets 3 0 0 0 1BB, 1K
Rodolfo Durán 4 0 0 0 1K
Fernando Tatis Jr. 4 0 0 0 2K
None 0 0 0 0
Jackson Merrill 4 0 0 0 2K
Sung-Mun Song 2 0 0 1 1BB
SEATTLE MARINERS — SEA 8 - TB 2
PITCHING
PITCHER IP H ER BB K P
Emerson Hancock 1.2 0 0 1 2 19
Nick Davila 2.0 1 0 0 0 24
José A. Ferrer 1.1 1 0 0 2 28
Michael Rucker 1.0 0 0 1 1 21
Gabe Speier 1.0 0 0 1 0 18
Eduard Bazardo 1.0 2 2 0 1 18
Andrés Muñoz 0.2 0 0 1 1 19
PITCH MIX — EMERSON HANCOCK VIEW PROFILE →
TODAY vs (SEASON AVG)
TYPE N USE% VELO IVB HBRK WHIFF% STR BALL
FF 8 42% (43%) 95.1 (95.5) 5.4 (5.3) -8.6 (-7.7) 25.0% (25.2%) 5 3
SI 8 42% (28%) 94.5 (94.8) 0.9 (0.4) -11.3 (-11.1) 0.0% (9.8%) 4 4
ST 2 11% (22%) 78.8 (77.1) 2.6 (1.2) 7.7 (8.4) 100.0% (33.5%) 2 0
CH 1 5% (6%) 86.5 (87.2) 0.2 (-0.3) -9.6 (-9.6) 0.0% (16.3%) 1 0
Color vs league avg (RHP) — green ≥10% above · red ≥10% below · season avg shown in (parens)
BATTING
BATTER AB H TB RBI NOTES
J.P. Crawford 4 3 5 3 22B, 1BB
Weston Wilson 4 1 4 1 1HR, 2K
Randy Arozarena 5 1 4 3 1HR, 2K
Buddy Kennedy 3 1 2 0 12B, 1BB, 1K
Josh Naylor 3 1 1 0 1BB
Cal Raleigh 4 1 1 0 1BB, 2K
Cole Young 4 1 1 0
Mitch Garver 4 0 0 0 1BB, 1K
Victor Robles 3 0 0 1 1K
None 0 0 0 0
CINCINNATI REDS — CIN 4 - CHC 8
PITCHING
PITCHER IP H ER BB K P
Andrew Abbott 4.0 4 4 3 3 79
Rhett Lowder 2.0 0 0 2 1 30
Chase Petty 2.0 2 1 0 2 25
Pierce Johnson 0.2 1 1 0 0 8
Sam Moll 0.1 2 2 0 1 15
PITCH MIX — ANDREW ABBOTT VIEW PROFILE →
TODAY vs (SEASON AVG)
TYPE N USE% VELO IVB HBRK WHIFF% STR BALL
FF 39 49% (47%) 91.9 (92.6) 9.9 (9.8) 4.3 (4.5) 2.6% (12.0%) 22 17
CH 20 25% (18%) 85.6 (85.9) 5.6 (5.5) 9.0 (8.8) 5.0% (40.3%) 13 5
ST 10 13% (19%) 81.7 (82.2) 0.3 (0.1) -6.9 (-6.8) 10.0% (30.9%) 6 2
CU 7 9% (15%) 78.8 (79.9) -3.4 (-3.6) -4.6 (-4.8) 14.3% (20.8%) 2 4
FC 3 4% (1%) 88.2 (88.7) 5.2 (4.9) -2.1 (-1.0) 0.0% (33.3%) 1 2
Color vs league avg (LHP) — green ≥10% above · red ≥10% below · season avg shown in (parens)
BATTING
BATTER AB H TB RBI NOTES
Eugenio Suárez 4 1 4 2 1HR, 3K
Spencer Steer 4 2 2 1
Sal Stewart 4 1 2 0 12B
Ke'Bryan Hayes 2 1 1 0
JJ Bleday 3 1 1 1 1BB, 1K
Noelvi Marte 4 1 1 0 1K
Elly De La Cruz 5 1 1 0 1K
Edwin Arroyo 4 1 1 0
Tyler Stephenson 4 0 0 0
Ivan Johnson 1 0 0 0
Generated 2026-07-13 16:02 ET · MiaCorp Analytics · Models: pK+ (K rate r=+0.560), pHR+ (HR rate r=−0.357), Juiced+2 (SLG r=+0.558) · Kalshi via KXMLBKS series